European airports could face a systemic jet fuel shortage within three weeks. That was the warning ACI Europe — the trade body representing airports across the EU — delivered to EU Commissioners in a letter dated around April 10, as the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran continues to strangle supply through the Strait of Hormuz and drive fuel costs to levels not seen in modern aviation history.
The letter left little room for interpretation:
“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”
— ACI Europe
Three weeks from that letter points directly to early May 2026 as the critical threshold. According to Argus Media, the final jet fuel cargoes to clear the Strait before its effective closure were projected to reach European ports around April 10. After that, unless the chokepoint reopens or alternative supply routes are secured at scale, incoming volumes could collapse.
How Bad the Numbers Are
In the week ending February 20, jet fuel cost about $96 a barrel. By February 27 — the last trading day before the conflict began — U.S. jet fuel was priced at $2.50 per gallon. By April 2, it had reached $4.88 per gallon, or nearly $205 per barrel. Airlines for America reported fuel prices in major U.S. cities up more than 50% since the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. That already exceeds the $180-per-barrel peak recorded at the height of the 2022 Ukraine war.
The practical reality: filling a Boeing 737-800 that cost $17,000 on February 27 ran over $27,000 less than a week into the conflict. Jet fuel typically represents 25–30% of an airline’s total operating costs — and at current prices, that figure is being blown apart across every balance sheet in the industry.
George Shaw, senior insight analyst at Kpler, described the structural scale of the problem plainly: “The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken out over 20% of the typical global seaborne jet fuel supply.” At least 42% of seaborne jet fuel imports into the EU-27 and the UK previously transited the Strait.
Airlines Are Already Cutting
The industry isn’t waiting for the shortage to arrive. Air New Zealand axed 1,100 flights through early May, affecting 44,000 passengers. SAS is cancelling 1,000 flights in April. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby announced the carrier would cut approximately 5% of planned routes in Q2 and Q3 — warning that current fuel prices could add an extra $11 billion in annual costs, more than double United’s best-ever yearly profit.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr has briefed staff on two contingency scenarios: a near-term reduction of 20 aircraft cutting seat capacity by 2.5%, or a more severe grounding of 40 aircraft representing a 5% reduction. Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary warned that 10% of summer flights could be axed if the situation drags on, singling out the UK as particularly exposed due to Kuwaiti market share in the country’s fuel supply chain.
easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis was blunt about the operational horizon: “I’m confident for a week or two that we’re all good. I’m probably confident that we’re good for three weeks. Am I confident over four weeks? Nobody’s telling me don’t worry about it halfway into May.”
Supply Restrictions Already Hitting Airports
Italy is already living the crisis. Air BP Italia issued emergency notices restricting refueling in two separate waves: first at Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice Marco Polo, and Treviso around April 4, then at Brindisi, Pescara, and Reggio Calabria on April 6 — with caps as low as 2,000 litres per aircraft for non-priority short-haul flights. Medical flights, state aircraft, and long-haul services over three hours have been granted priority access.
Short-haul operators are resorting to fuel tankering — departing with surplus fuel loaded at origin airports — a tactic that adds weight, reduces efficiency, and accelerates cost bleed.
A brief ceasefire agreement reached around April 8 between the U.S. and Iran included a provision for vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but the passage remains effectively closed. IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned that even if the Strait fully reopens, jet fuel and ticket prices will remain elevated for months — disruption to regional refining capacity has already created supply challenges that won’t resolve quickly.
Airlines with 60–90 days of positioned fuel reserves may avoid catastrophic disruption through June. Regional airports, which typically hold only a few days of fuel in storage, are the most exposed as deliveries thin out. ACI Europe’s three-week deadline remains the key near-term trigger to watch for forced schedule changes across the network.
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