Boeing and Airbus are in a head-to-head race for what could be a landmark 100-jet narrowbody order from SMBC Aviation Capital. The two manufacturers are deep in talks ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, which opens Monday, July 20.
Boeing is pushing for roughly 100 737 MAX aircraft from the Dublin-based lessor. Airbus is making its own pitch—the A320neo family, in similar numbers. According to Bloomberg reporting on July 16, neither company has publicly confirmed a deal. But sources familiar with the negotiations—speaking on condition of anonymity because talks remain confidential—say both manufacturers believe they can win.
A 100-jet commitment from either side would be huge news at Farnborough and send a signal about narrowbody demand heading into the second half of 2026. Market intelligence firm IBA is forecasting as many as 875 commercial aircraft orders across the entire show, with narrowbodies expected to make up roughly 480 of those.
Why This Order Matters
SMBC ranks as the world’s second-largest aircraft operating lessor. It manages an owned, managed, and committed portfolio of approximately 1,000 aircraft serving nearly 105 airline customers worldwide. The fleet skews heavily narrowbody—roughly 92 percent—with 454 Airbus A320neo family jets and 193 Boeing 737 MAX airframes on the books. A 100-aircraft order anchors production-line capacity for years, whichever manufacturer wins.
Lessor orders punch above their weight strategically. When SMBC deploys aircraft into service, those jets fan out to carriers across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—multiplying a single manufacturer’s installed base and network reach. That’s why Boeing and Airbus fight this hard for lessor commitments as much as they do direct airline deals.
SMBC has split its orders before. Back in 2014, the lessor committed to 195 aircraft worth $20 billion from both Airbus and Boeing combined—a sign that winner-take-all isn’t inevitable. But the dynamics in play now favor a decisive win for one manufacturer.
The Competitive Landscape
Boeing’s 737 MAX holds roughly 40 percent of the narrowbody market with a backlog exceeding 4,800 aircraft. The company is ramping production to 52 jets per month, up from the 47 monthly rate currently in effect. It opened a second 737 MAX assembly line in Everett on July 6—a move that signals confidence in sustained demand.
Airbus commands approximately 60 percent market share with the A320neo family and surpassed 12,000 cumulative deliveries in late 2025, making it the most-delivered commercial jetliner ever—eclipsing the 737. Airbus is building 60 A320neos monthly and targeting 75 per month, with a backlog exceeding 7,100 aircraft.
Both face the same bottleneck: meaningful production slots don’t open up until around 2033. That scarcity is precisely why lessor orders matter so much—they lock in manufacturing capacity and secure airlines’ future fleet positions.
What to Watch
The show runs through July 24. Order announcements typically flood in on Monday and Tuesday when media attention peaks and airline delegations are most present. Expect press conferences from Boeing and Airbus across the opening days.
Beyond the SMBC fight, IBA is expecting widebody commitments from Etihad, American, Qantas, Air India, and Singapore Airlines. Narrowbody orders are anticipated from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, and Alaska Airlines. Etihad and Boeing are also expected to confirm a deal for additional 787 Dreamliners.
Developments from Farnborough will come quickly. An SMBC decision could arrive within days.
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