Airbus released its Global Services Forecast Thursday, and the headline number caught my attention: China is projected to overtake both North America and Europe to become the world’s largest aviation services market by 2043. If the forecast holds, the implications for manufacturers, suppliers, and MRO providers worldwide are enormous.
The Chinese market is projected to nearly triple in value from $23 billion in 2024 to $61 billion by 2043. That growth trajectory would make China the single most important aftermarket in commercial aviation.
The Numbers Behind the Forecast
By 2043, Airbus projects China will have 11,160 aircraft in service, with 9,520 new deliveries accounting for 20% of global demand. Those aircraft will need maintenance, parts, training, and digital services – creating a services market that dwarfs anything seen before in a single country.
For context, North America currently leads in aviation services revenue, supported by the world’s largest installed fleet and mature MRO infrastructure. But China’s growth rate is unmatched. The country added more new aircraft over the past decade than any other market, and that fleet is now reaching the age where heavy maintenance checks become necessary.
Why Services Matter More Than Aircraft Sales
Here’s something that often gets overlooked in aviation coverage: the real money isn’t in selling planes – it’s in supporting them for 25-30 years of operational life. A new A320neo might sell for $110 million, but lifetime services revenue for that aircraft can exceed the purchase price.
Airbus, Boeing, and their suppliers are increasingly focused on capturing services revenue. Engine manufacturers like CFM and Pratt & Whitney generate most of their profits from spare parts and maintenance contracts, not original equipment sales.
China’s services growth represents a strategic opportunity for Western companies – but also a challenge. Chinese companies are building domestic MRO capabilities, developing homegrown aircraft like the C919, and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.
Geopolitical Complexity
Despite geopolitical challenges, China’s civil aviation market has shown resilience in 2024. An estimated 700 million travelers are expected to have flown within China this year – the highest volume to date. Domestic travel has recovered strongly from pandemic lows, even as international travel remains below 2019 levels.
Probably should have led with this, honestly: the U.S.-China relationship creates real uncertainty about how Western companies can participate in the Chinese market. Export controls, technology restrictions, and trade tensions affect everyone. Airbus, as a European manufacturer, may face fewer restrictions than American suppliers, potentially giving the company a competitive advantage.
The C919 Factor
Airbus’s forecast also comes as China develops its own commercial aircraft program. The COMAC C919 entered service in 2023 with China Eastern Airlines and has accumulated thousands of flight hours. While the aircraft relies heavily on Western suppliers for engines, avionics, and systems, China is working to develop domestic alternatives.
If China succeeds in building a fully indigenous commercial aircraft industry, it could reshape the global competitive landscape. Western manufacturers might find themselves locked out of a market they currently depend on for growth.
What This Means for the Industry
For aircraft manufacturers and suppliers, Airbus’s forecast signals both opportunity and risk. The opportunity: a $61 billion services market that will require training, parts, MRO, and digital solutions. The risk: Chinese companies capturing an increasing share of that market domestically.
Airlines, MRO providers, and training organizations are already positioning for growth in the region. Those who establish strong Chinese partnerships now may be better positioned as the market matures.
That’s what makes this forecast worth watching closely – the next two decades will determine whether Western aviation companies can participate in China’s growth, or whether they’ll watch from the sidelines as the world’s largest aviation services market develops without them.
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